The Biden administration is racing against time to solidify its Middle East policy initiatives before the transition of power to President-elect Donald Trump. In its last six weeks, the outgoing administration is focused on establishing a cease-fire in Gaza,
maintaining a fragile truce in Lebanon, and laying the groundwork for a U.S.-Saudi-Israel pact. The urgency stems not only from the need to stabilize the region but also from a desire to bolster Biden’s legacy in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
Efforts to Secure Peace in Gaza and Lebanon
A key priority for the Biden administration is to negotiate a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, where conflict between Israel and Hamas has claimed tens of thousands of lives since October 2023. While Israel has significantly weakened Hamas militarily, ongoing negotiations
involve the potential release of Israeli hostages held by the militant group. The Biden administration is intensifying its efforts to facilitate a deal that could de-escalate violence and set the stage for more comprehensive peace talks.
In Lebanon, the administration is working to sustain a delicate truce between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants. This effort, credited in part to meetings between senior Israeli officials and Biden’s team, reflects a cautious optimism about reducing hostilities in the region.
Trump’s Influence on the Middle East Transition
President-elect Trump’s shadow looms large over Biden’s final diplomatic efforts. Trump has already engaged with Middle Eastern leaders and expressed his vision for the region. His rhetoric, including threats against Hamas for hostage-taking, has influenced the calculus of various regional actors. Some governments are delaying major decisions, preferring to align their strategies with the incoming administration.
For example, the Palestinian Authority has postponed reforms to its controversial “martyr payments” system, signaling a readiness to engage with Trump’s administration rather than Biden’s. This strategic waiting game complicates Biden’s efforts to achieve tangible progress before leaving office.
Challenges in Securing a U.S.-Saudi-Israel Agreement
One of the Biden administration’s most ambitious goals is to broker a diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This pact, which hinges on security guarantees from the United States, faces significant obstacles, including Saudi demands for Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution for Palestinians. The Gaza conflict has further strained these negotiations, with Saudi leaders adopting a critical stance on Israel’s actions.
At the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki Al-Faisal openly criticized Israel’s conduct in Gaza, describing it as “genocide.” This rhetoric underscores the deep divisions that remain and the strategic leverage Saudi Arabia seeks to maximize before engaging with Trump’s administration.
Expanding Multilateral Cooperation
Despite these challenges, the Biden administration unveiled a significant achievement during its final days: inviting the United Kingdom to join an existing U.S.-Bahrain security and economic agreement. This pact, established in 2023, aims to enhance
regional stability and counter threats from adversaries like Iran. While not a headline-grabbing development, this expansion reflects the administration’s commitment to strengthening multilateral partnerships.
Syria: A Persistent Challenge
The situation in Syria remains a critical concern as the Biden administration prepares for the transition. Recent gains by rebel forces have destabilized the regime of Bashar al-Assad, raising fears of further chaos. Biden’s team has called for de-escalation
and political dialogue but acknowledges the limited U.S. influence over Syria’s complex dynamics. Trump, in contrast, has signaled a hands-off approach, advocating for non-intervention in the conflict.
Conclusion
The Biden administration’s final push in the Middle East underscores the challenges of navigating a volatile region during a political transition. While progress has been made in certain areas, such as the Lebanon truce and the expansion of multilateral
agreements, the broader goals of achieving peace in Gaza and brokering a Saudi-Israel pact remain elusive. As Trump prepares to take office, the region’s shifting dynamics will continue to test U.S. diplomacy.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What are the key goals of the Biden administration in the Middle East?
The administration aims to secure a cease-fire in Gaza, maintain peace in Lebanon, and negotiate a U.S.-Saudi-Israel agreement to strengthen regional stability.
2. How has the Gaza conflict influenced U.S. diplomacy?
The ongoing violence has complicated peace efforts, with the Biden administration focusing on securing a cease-fire and addressing humanitarian concerns.
3. What is the significance of the U.S.-Bahrain security agreement?
This pact enhances regional security cooperation and counters threats from Iran, serving as a cornerstone for broader multilateral collaboration.
4. How is the Palestinian Authority responding to the transition?
The PA is delaying reforms to its controversial “martyr payments” system, likely waiting to negotiate with the incoming Trump administration.
5. What challenges does Syria pose for U.S. policy?
Syria’s internal conflict and the fragile regime of Bashar al-Assad present ongoing challenges, with limited U.S. influence to shape outcomes in the region.